For more than 20 years Democrats could rely on New York, a bastion of liberal support in their war with Republicans.
The state has not elected a Republican senator or governor for two decades.
But as the US midterms loom next week, their dominance is threatened.
As a sign they are in trouble, Democrats are drafting in the big guns this weekend
In the closing days of these elections the vice president, president and both Clintons are among the party’s stars campaigning here.
Polling numbers are moving against them.
Their candidate for governor Kathy Hochul could be in trouble.
She is neck and neck with her Republican challenger Lee Zeldin.
Read more:
Donald Trump teases fresh White House bid
Biden warns democracy at risk as midterms loom
Anger, betrayal and fear as America braces for midterm elections
But their problems go deeper.
New York is a bellwether state.
If a red wave of Republican support happens here, it is likely to be repeated nationally.
Upstate out in the suburbs there is a hankering for change.
Kathy Hochul
On the banks of the Hudson River the prosperous, sleepy town of Nyack is not a Republican stronghold, but people are not content with the last two years of Democrat government.
“I haven’t really seen the left really do anything,” waiter Maddux Cale told Sky News.
“I haven’t seen them step up when they said they were going to step up, and I haven’t seen them do anything that has actually been effective to help people.”
“Look at the inflation look at the price of fuel,” said Mike Rail, sitting outside a bar on Main St.
“I mean, it’s out of control so how do we not try something else for two years? Just two years.”
Post-pandemic problems may penalise the Democrats.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
How do midterm elections work?
Inflation, the cost of living and rising crime are motivating voters.
On the subway heading downtown, New Yorkers told Sky News they are deeply worried about their safety.
“Crime is definitely an issue – on the trains and in the suburbs as well,” one commuter said, declining to give his name.
“I have been in New York for over 40 years and this is the first time I have been afraid to come into Manhattan,” a female passenger said.
“But it’s not just Manhattan.
“I live on Long Island, which used to be safe that is not safe.
“I’m just scared.”
Lee Zeldin
She said she would still vote Democrat because she did not believe Republicans could do any better.
But enough voters are thinking of supporting Republicans to have Democrats alarmed.
You would expect a solidly liberal crowd at a drag bingo night.
But among the players in the Wolf and Warrior Brewery in White Plains New York, one former Democrat told Sky News he would be swinging his vote to Republicans.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
US braces for midterm elections
“I actually voted for Bill Clinton, so I liked Bill Clinton.
“I thought he was good for the economy and good for the markets, and then, after the last couple of years when you see what’s happening with everything now, I think you gotta go in a different direction.”
New York may be shifting politically and that spells trouble nationally.
If Republicans can do well here, they will across America too, with all that means for Joe Biden’s administration and party.