A new poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading ex-president Donald Trump 50%-46 in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania.
Here are the latest numbers from Bullfinch:
#New General election poll – Pennsylvania
ðµ Harris 50% (+4)
ð´ Trump 46%Senate
ðµ Casey 52% (+10)
ð´ McCormick 42%Bullfinch – 800 RV – 9/29
â Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 8, 2024
The poll comes a day after mail-in ballot data revealed a great deal of Democratic enthusiasm which could suggest a higher turnout election.
Trump’s fundamental problem in Pennsylvania is that the state Republican Party is a mess, and the RNC has no get out the vote operation. Trump’s get out the vote operation seems to consist of doing rallies. Trump has wasted campaign days with stops in places like Indiana, PA, a town in a rural red county that Trump won by more than 30 points in both 2016 and 2020 and Butler, PA.
Trump thought the Butler stop would be the sort of made for TV that would get coverage on all of the networks. Trump loaded up appearance with live music and Elon Musk. Donald Trump was trying to create a moment, and it flopped.
The biggest problem with Trump’s Pennsylvania strategy is that he is not trying to appeal to the state’s large pool of swing voters. Trump is trying to drive up turnout among rural MAGA and hoping that will be enough to carry him to victory, even though Republicans have been losing statewide in Pennsylvania with this same strategy.
Polling has consistently shown Kamala Harris leading Pennsylvania, and if Harris were to win Pennsylvania by four points, it would be lights out for Donald Trump.
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Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association