Labour would fall short of an overall majority in parliament, a vote share projection shows following local elections in England.
Based on analysis of change in vote share across 1,500 wards Labour is the most popular party with 36%, with the Conservative share 29%, Lib Dems with 18% and others standing at 17%.
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Assuming a uniform national swing and applying these to the seats decided at the last general election, Labour would be on course to become the largest party at the next election.
It would gain 95 seats – to an improved total of 298 in this projection – the highest number since Labour won the 2005 general election, but 28 short of an overall majority.
Under the Sky News projection, the Tories would lose 127 MPs – dropping from 365 to 238.
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This would be the lowest total for the Conservatives since the 198 seats it won in 2005.
The projection also shows that the Liberal Democrats would benefit from the fall in Conservative support, with the party estimated to win 39 seats – up from the 11 it won at the last general election.
The remaining parties – including nationalists in Scotland and Wales – are projected to win 75 seats.