What to Know
- A new poll shows three candidates separating from the rest of the crowded field days ahead of the June 2 California primary.
- Among likely California voters, 25% supported former Health and Human Services Secretary Becerra, according to the poll by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies.
- The race for second, which will determine who the primary winner faces in the November runoff, appears to be a race between Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer.
- The poll results mark a dramatic gain for Becerra, who was near the bottom of the previous Berkeley IGS poll in March with support at a dismal 5%.
- The top two vote-getters in the California primary election, regardless of party affiliation, advance to a November runoff election.
Democrat Xavier Becerra leads the race for California governor with a tight race shaping up for second ahead of the June 2 primary election, according to a new poll.
Among likely California voters, 25% supported former Health and Human Services Secretary Becerra, according to the poll by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies that was co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.
The poll released Thursday night shows Republican Steve Hilton with 21% and Democrat Tom Steyer at 19%, suggesting three candidates have separated from the rest of the crowded field in the contest to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom.
The poll results mark a dramatic gain for Becerra, who was near the bottom of the previous Berkeley IGS poll in March with support at a dismal 5% among likely voters. The frontrunner at that time, former Congress member Eric Swalwell, dropped out of the race the following month.
The recent poll showed Riverside County Sheriff and Republican Chad Bianco in fourth at 11%, a 5-percentage point drop since the March poll.
Former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter was at %7. The remaining Democrats in the field, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond all were polling below %5.
The poll offers more insight into how the primary field is shaping up and comes on the heels of a Public Policy Institute of California survey conducted earlier this month and released Wednesday night that showed 23% of those surveyed backing Becerra and 20% casting support for Hilton, a former political adviser and Fox News show host.
Billionaire investor and environmental advocate Steyer was at 15%, Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco was at 13% and former Congress member Katie Porter was at 12% in the PPIC poll.
The PPIC surveyed 986 likely voters earlier this month on a wide range of subjects related to the election and California government.
The top two vote-getters in the California primary election, regardless of party affiliation, advance to a November runoff election.
Some Californians have already cast ballots. Vote-by-mail ballots are sent to every active eligible voter in the nation’s most populous state, meaning voting began in early May.
Democrats, who typically have high turnout in primaries, have been slow to return or drop off ballots, Paul Mitchell, a Democratic strategist tracking ballot returns, told the Associated Press. Many may be waiting for poll and survey results to signal the most viable candidate in the crowded field of Democrats.
“My joke is: Call your Democratic parents and tell them to turn in their ballot,” he said. “They are holding onto the ballot because they have seen this kind of topsy-turvy governor’s race. They’re waiting to make sure they’re making the right choice.”
There were early fears among Democrats that two Republicans might advance to the November runoff due to the number of Democrats in the field.
Hilton issued a statement Thursday morning about the poll, suggesting a possible all-Democrat primary scenario.
About half a million mail-in ballots were returned as of this week. Camilla Rambaldi reports for the NBC4 News at 4 p.m. on Wednesday, May 27, 2026.
“This poll shows that the Doomsday scenario for California — two Democrats in the top two — is still a very real possibility thanks to the split in the Republican vote,” Hilton said. “Chad Bianco obviously cannot make the top two. Unless Republicans now get behind the only change candidate with a realistic path to the general election, Californians could be denied the chance to vote for the change this state so desperately needs after 16 years of one-party rule that have given us the highest poverty rate, highest unemployment rate, and highest cost of living in America.”
About 10% of the state’s roughly 23 million voters had voted as of Wednesday, according to Mitchell’s tracker. That includes about 15% of Republicans, 10% of Democrats and 7% of voters registered with no or another party.
Democrats in recent years have tended to vote early while many Republicans wait until Election Day.
In other key PPIC survey findings, seven in 10 likely voters said they are following news about the governor’s race very or fairly closely, according to the PPIC. About six in ten say they are satisfied with the choice of candidates in the race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom and think that the top-two primary system has been mostly a good thing for California since Proposition 14 passed in 2010.