The 2026 gubernatorial primary race could be one for the history books.
Welcome to California, where a candidate can go from polling in the single digits to becoming a frontrunner while another gubernatorial hopeful runs the most expensive campaign in California gubernatorial history. And, there’s a British native, who became a U.S. citizen five years ago and could possibly move to Sacramento as the next governor of California.
Where does the race stand now?
Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra had support from 28% of likely voters in the state after polling at single-digit levels for months, according to the most recent survey. After Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race in April, Becerra began surging in the polls, surpassing all Democratic rivals and Republican frontrunners.
Billionaire candidate Tom Steyer was in second place with 22% followed by Republican Steve Hilton at 21%.
Riverside County Sheiff Chad Bianco was at 12% while former Congresswoman Katie Porter and San Jose Mayor Matt polled at 5%.
Former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa received support from 2%, and California Superintendent Tony Thurmond got 1%.
Who will advance to November run-off?
Among 61 candidates after months of campaigning, recent surveys have shown California voters may have narrowed down to three choices: Xavier Becerra, Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton.
In the California primary, the top two vote-getters advance to the runoff election, regardless of party affiliation.
It’s hard to believe just three months ago, Becerra was being urged to leave the governor’s race. But as his supporters called it, the “Becerra bounce” helped him go from polling at 3% in March to becoming the frontrunner at 28% in June.
Steyer is not far behind. As the billionaire candidate, who has spent over $200 million for his gubernatorial campaign, continues on with his record-breaking spending, he could surge further until the polls close Tuesday night.
Hilton, a former Fox News host, has consistently been among the leaders since announcing his candidacy. At one point, his place in the November general election appeared almost guaranteed, but as voters in the deep-blue state began to make up their minds, he may be losing his edge.
But if the British-born candidate can consolidate Republican support, convincing GOP voters to back him, instead of Bianco, by Tuesday night, he could face a Democratic candidate in November.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco reflects on his 16-month campaign and what he expects on Election Day. Christian Cazares reports for the NBC4 News at 4:30 p.m. on Monday, June 1, 2026.
Chad Bianco remains stuck
Good news for Republican Chad Bianco: his poll numbers haven’t changed much since the beginning of the year. The bad news: his poll numbers haven’t changed much.
After polling at around 13% in December 2025, the Riverside County sheriff had support from 11% of California voters, according to the most recent survey. It indicates while Bianco maintained a loyal following, he struggled to attract undecided voters.
As his GOP rival Hilton received Pres. Donald Trump’s endorsement and gained momentum, Bianco had to fend off questions about his past association with the Oath Keepers and other controversies, which possibly limited his appeal beyond his Republican base.
The presumed California governor candidate was also seen abruptly ending an interview with a TV reporter this week. Hetty Chang reports for the NBC4 News at 4 p.m. on Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025.
Waning support for Katie Porter
This could be yet another disappointing campaign for the former congresswoman.
Porter, once a rising star of the Democratic Party, started the race as one of the frontrunners and gained momentum when former Vice President Kamala Harris announced she would not run for California’s governor.
But her support steadily declined into the low teens and then single digits, according to polls, largely because of questions surrounding her temperament.
Her campaign was hurt by a couple of viral videos, including one that showed a heated exchange with a TV reporter in 2025. Critics and her competitors used those incidents to argue she lacked the temperament for executive office.
And the late surge by Becerra may have adversely affected Porter: her polling numbers continued to drop as Becerra gained more supporters.