The California Institute of Technology (Caltech) in Pasadena is launching a new center to prepare Southern California for the next major disaster.
Led by seismologist Dr. Lucy Jones, the Center for Disaster Resilience aims to bring researchers and community leaders together to focus on preparedness, response and recovery for natural disaster threats affecting the region. That includes earthquakes, wildfires, extreme heat, flooding and tropical storms.
“Preparation is more than just how do we respond? It’s how do we prevent the damage in the first place?” said Jones, the center’s director. “And if you want to know what’s really going to work, you really need the science. You need the evidence on which to base your decisions.”
The center will be updating the ShakeOut Scenario, the region’s earthquake planning model. Beyond analyzing predicted damage to buildings, the new model will also evaluate damage from secondary disasters, like fires, mudslides and chemical spills, as well as social and economic disruption.
“What we’re trying to do is make sure that information we need both before the disaster and after is something that can be gotten together,” Jones said.
Caltech officials say they are taking a broader approach to disaster planning because climate change is causing more powerful disasters. They’ll also be focused on the impact of this year’s predicted powerful El Niño.
“Our models say it’s about an 80% probability of a wetter-than-normal winter and possibly a record-breaking wet winter,” said Tapio Schneider, a professor of Environmental Science and Engineering at Caltech.
Disaster experts say it’s time to prepare now, not in the middle of a disaster. They recommend that people have an emergency plan and make sure their homes are ready.